Grimstonefire:
I was doing this over at warseer earlier, and I though you might find it vaguely interesting as well.
To test the theory that taking a current book and adding on 6 years will give you a pretty good indication of when a book will be done, I�?Tve done some number crunching.
Forgetting the fact that before 7th the releases were very sporadic, it proves that the 6 year rule is not entirely true, but not far off.
6th edition release to 7th edition release (using UK WD). Note that this may not be totally accurate, but it is close enough:
Empire. 6 years 5 monthsAverage of releases thus far = 6 years 1 month (apprx)
Dwarfs. 5 years
Orcs and Goblins 5 years 11 months
High Elves 5 years 9 months
Dark Elves 7 years 1 month
Hordes of Chaos WoC 6 years 5 months. DoC 5 years 11 months
Lizardmen 5 years 9 months
Vampire Counts 6 years 10 months
Bretonnians ? 6th Ed = Feb 2004
Wood Elves ? 6th Ed = Aug 2005
Ogre Kingdoms ? 6h Ed = Jan 2005
Skaven ? 6th Ed = Apr 2002
Tomb Kings ? 6th Ed = Jan 2003
Beasts of Chaos ? 6th Ed = Aug 2003
If you extrapolate that into the armies yet to be released, it would mean based on the average the remaining ones would be released roughly as:
Skaven May 2008 (doh) - overdueAnd if you extend that all the way back round to the armies released so far (assuming they came in the same order). Remember that using my figures this could be roughly a year either side:
Tomb Kings February 2009 (doh) - overdue
Beasts of Chaos September 2009
Bretonnians March 2010
Ogre Kingdoms February 2011
Wood Elves September 2011
Dwarfs Mar 2012We all know of course that simply doing the average tells us nothing about the exact month or year, as some will take longer, others will be sooner! As you can see by TK and Skaven.
Orcs and Goblins Nov 2012
Empire Feb 2013
High Elves Dec 2013
Vampire Counts April 2014
Daemons of Chaos June 2014
Dark Elves Sept 2014
Warriors of Chaos December 2014
Lizardmen March 2015
Based on the info we currently have Skaven will be the longest between editions, 7 years 4 months compared to dark elves with 7 years 1 month.
If you used my rough guestimates using the shortest to longest releases thus far, and taking into account what we already know about skaven and beasts (assuming that I’ve remembered beasts as coming straight after skaven), it would mean:
Skaven August 2009 -September 2009So take from that whatever order you can work out! Unless one of the armies creates a new average by being sooner than 5 years, or longer than 7 years 4 months, all current armies will have been done by June 2012 at the latest.
Beasts of Chaos October 2009 - March 2010
Tomb Kings May 2010 - June 2011
Bretonnians May 2010 - June 2011
Wood Elves July 2010 - December 2011
Ogre Kingdoms May 2010 - June 2012
Seeing as you could theoretically squeeze the above 6 into 6 quarters (unless they skip a quarter with some new released army or mega book), that realistically means all armies will be done before January 2011. If they did both (a mega book and a rumoured new army, if it followed the rest), that would mean all armies would have to be done by July 2011 at the absolute latest.
For the fun of it I will make my predictions about the first 8th edition armies (after the old ones, and assuming this new army gets released at some point before these). Obviously this is so far away it�?Ts really just guessing.
Based on the order of releases from 6th and 7th and gut feeling. Working on my belief that GW will release an uber apocalypse style book at some point in the next 2 years, plus this semi confirmed/ rumoured new army:
8th edition predicted date range (and rough order):
Empire, Dwarfs or Orcs & Goblins July 2011 - December 2011Beyond this it�?Ts really impossible to tell as there is no predictable order.
Empire, Dwarfs or Orcs & Goblins July 2011 - December 2011
Empire or Dwarfs January 2011 �?" March 2012
High Elves or Vampire Counts April 2012 �?" August 2012
High Elves or Vampire Counts April 2012 �?" August 2012
