[Archive] Number crunching to 8th edition armies


I was doing this over at warseer earlier, and I though you might find it vaguely interesting as well.

To test the theory that taking a current book and adding on 6 years will give you a pretty good indication of when a book will be done, I�?Tve done some number crunching.

Forgetting the fact that before 7th the releases were very sporadic, it proves that the 6 year rule is not entirely true, but not far off.

6th edition release to 7th edition release (using UK WD).  Note that this may not be totally accurate, but it is close enough:

Empire.	              6 years 5 months
Dwarfs.              5 years
Orcs and Goblins       5 years 11 months
High Elves              5 years 9 months
Dark Elves              7 years 1 month
Hordes of Chaos       WoC 6 years 5 months.  DoC 5 years 11 months
Lizardmen              5 years 9 months
Vampire Counts          6 years 10 months
Bretonnians              ?  6th Ed = Feb 2004
Wood Elves              ? 6th Ed = Aug 2005
Ogre Kingdoms ?          6h Ed = Jan 2005
Skaven                  ?  6th Ed = Apr 2002
Tomb Kings              ?  6th Ed = Jan 2003
Beasts of Chaos        ?  6th Ed = Aug 2003
Average of releases thus far = 6 years 1 month (apprx)

If you extrapolate that into the armies yet to be released, it would mean based on the average the remaining ones would be released roughly as:
Skaven	             May 2008 (doh)  - overdue
Tomb Kings              February 2009 (doh)  - overdue
Beasts of Chaos              September 2009
Bretonnians              March 2010
Ogre Kingdoms              February 2011
Wood Elves              September 2011
And if you extend that all the way back round to the armies released so far (assuming they came in the same order).  Remember that using my figures this could be roughly a year either side:
Dwarfs	             Mar 2012
Orcs and Goblins              Nov 2012
Empire              Feb 2013
High Elves              Dec 2013
Vampire Counts              April 2014
Daemons of Chaos              June 2014
Dark Elves              Sept 2014
Warriors of Chaos        December 2014
Lizardmen              March 2015
We all know of course that simply doing the average tells us nothing about the exact month or year, as some will take longer, others will be sooner!  As you can see by TK and Skaven.

Based on the info we currently have Skaven will be the longest between editions, 7 years 4 months compared to dark elves with 7 years 1 month.

If you used my rough guestimates using the shortest to longest releases thus far, and taking into account what we already know about skaven and beasts (assuming that I’ve remembered beasts as coming straight after skaven), it would mean:
Skaven          August 2009 -September 2009
Beasts of Chaos     October 2009 - March 2010
Tomb Kings        May 2010 - June 2011
Bretonnians        May 2010 - June 2011
Wood Elves        July 2010 - December 2011
Ogre Kingdoms   May 2010 - June 2012
So take from that whatever order you can work out!  Unless one of the armies creates a new average by being sooner than 5 years, or longer than 7 years 4 months, all current armies will have been done by June 2012 at the latest.

Seeing as you could theoretically squeeze the above 6 into 6 quarters (unless they skip a quarter with some new released army or mega book), that realistically means all armies will be done before January 2011.  If they did both (a mega book and a rumoured new army, if it followed the rest), that would mean all armies would have to be done by July 2011 at the absolute latest.

For the fun of it I will make my predictions about the first 8th edition armies (after the old ones, and assuming this new army gets released at some point before these).  Obviously this is so far away it�?Ts really just guessing.

Based on the order of releases from 6th and 7th and gut feeling.  Working on my belief that GW will release an uber apocalypse style book at some point in the next 2 years, plus this semi confirmed/ rumoured new army:

8th edition predicted date range (and rough order):
Empire, Dwarfs or Orcs & Goblins	             July 2011 - December 2011
Empire, Dwarfs or Orcs & Goblins              July 2011 - December 2011
Empire or Dwarfs                           January 2011 �?" March 2012
High Elves or Vampire Counts              April 2012 �?" August 2012
High Elves or Vampire Counts              April 2012 �?" August 2012
Beyond this it�?Ts really impossible to tell as there is no predictable order.


Really, what has thrown those off was the release of new armies (Warriors of Chaos to Beasts of Chaos to Demons to Chaos to Ogre Kingdoms) and new supplements and games (Storm of Chaos, and LoTR)


Way to speculate Grimstonefire.:cheers

Tarrakk Blackhand:

We can only hope!

(I only read so far because I’m doing my income taxes and this looked like too much math!:D)


You’ve missed out the obligatory “something different” that GW sticks in the middle and end of each cycle. Last time it was TK and OK. The current rumours of a new army tally with the middle slot, which would be around the end of this year.

Godbob and his jolly rogers:

I myself wouldn’t go with that, knowing GW’s unpredictable nature, but I will be using it as a baseline for when to get my hopes up :slight_smile:


Predicting the range until the end of the current cycle is really hard.  There is nothing to suggest they will stick to the order in 6th.  So you could see ogres before bretonnians for example.

Rumours of when this new army will fit into all this has not been discussed yet.

But assuming it either follows straight on the end, or before some of the others, the first few for the new cycle is much easier to predict.  If Empire is rumoured to come first you’ll know the next two are Orcs and then Dwarfs (if past trends are anything to go by.


I don’t know that this has any credibility, buy the guy at my GW store is CONVINCED that the “surprise army” is a re-imagining of the Bretonnian army. He’s not an avid Bretonnian fan as far as I know, so there may be something there… He is, however, a grunt as far as the GW structure goes, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in it.


That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The impression I got from that warseer thread was that it was not a current army, it was new.

Perhaps its a Bretonnian army all on foot!


It would be nice to see a whole book with at least one themed list for each army. Like SoC but one for every army and some semblence of balance.

Kera foehunter:

you for got chaos dwarf sept. 9th 2009