[Archive] The second Geist knows it all challenge

Geist:

Once again my greed to own all the slaves pushes my hubris above and beyond even my abilities to control. For those of you who were absent to the last series here is the low down.

I will answer any and all GW Warhammer 8th Ed (sorry no guessing at the future) rules questions.

The format :

You post a question and depending on how hard you think the question is to answer you award slaves equal to the task.

Examples:

If I have a bs of 4 what is my to hit number assuming no modifiers. Slaves 1

( in reality this question merits no answer)

When firing a hell blaster organ gun from the empire army book how many rolls of a misfire are possible and what number is needed for a gun misfire roll. Slaves 5

(Another easy one but not everyone knows empire).

Lastly since last years challenge got a lil hot, all questions are to be none personal. All answers will have humor when possible and no slander in the intent.

I look forward to all questions, I want ALL THE SLAVES!!! Muhahahaha

Abecedar:

I’ll ask one.  I don’t get to play much at all and this has begun doing my head in.

I am doing my Army List.  Normally you agree on a points total and select what you want to field. I can do that

But this is for all my painted models and the rules are that it must fit into the limits of using LoA and 8th Ed’ composition.

(I’m personally not interested in any of the EoT changes).

So when I tally up all my available core. That would be my 25% baseline.

Then the maximum army total I could list would be 4 x my core total.

Am damn sure that is correct, but am I?

Bloodbeard:

That’s not a tricky question, I’m just gonna answer that for you Abecedar - no slaves needed.

Yes. Including your core. I have 800 core point (including weapon options,  command groups, magic banner etc).

800 x 4 = 3200 points.

Thats my max I can do legal in standard 8th edition.

Up to 50% of the remaining (1600) can be lords.
Up to 50% of remaining can be heroes.
Up to 50% of remaining can be special choice.
Up to 25% (800) can be rare choice.

Because it’s 3000pts+ you may have up to 6 dublicates in special (ie 6 deathshrieker) and up to 4 dublicates in rare (ie 4 destroyers).

Below 3000 its 3 special and 2 rare dublicates as a max.

Get your army medal Abecedar!

TheHoodedMan:

how much is the chance to get ash storm with one lvl 4 hashut incl. double rolls?

Please with way how to do the math :-).

If the answer is good 9 slaves for you.

Kamphre:


how much is the chance to get ash storm with one lvl 4 hashut incl. double rolls?
Please with way how to do the math :-).
If the answer is good 9 slaves for you.

TheHoodedMan
You can find your answer (and many more) for probabilities Math Hammer.
PDF by Aaron Chapman, best US dwarf (and other armies too) general for years.

If the answer is fine for you, send the slaves to Geist, I trusted his post... ;)

Bloodbeard:

The answer ain’t in there as far as I can see.

cornixt:

Here’s something similar to the other points cost question.

Playing a game with 1000pts max. My army comes to 992pts. Can I take only 248 pts of Core?

Bloodbeard:

I got the math for getting / not getting Ash Storm on a lvl 4 mage! Keeping secret for now.

Kamphre:

The answer ain't in there as far as I can see.

Bloodbeard
Oups, I read "cast" instead of "get"... I'll try to answer anyway :
First dice as 1/6 to give a 4,
Second dice as 2/6 to give either a 4 or a double,
Third as 3/6,
Fourth as 4/6.
Add everything, you get 10/24 to get either a 4 or a double, so nearly 1/2.5

Am I right or should I go back to school to learn more about probabilities ? :)

Bloodbeard:

The answer ain't in there as far as I can see.

Bloodbeard
Oups, I read "cast" instead of "get"... I'll try to answer anyway :
First dice as 1/6 to give a 4,
Second dice as 2/6 to give either a 4 or a double,
Third as 3/6,
Fourth as 4/6.
Add everything, you get 10/24 to get either a 4 or a double, so nearly 1/2.5

Am I right or should I go back to school to learn more about probabilities ? :)


Kamphre
Back to school. In all my games with LoA I've misaed Ashstorm once. So the percentage is way higher than 41.

Dînadan:

The answer ain't in there as far as I can see.

Bloodbeard
Oups, I read "cast" instead of "get"... I'll try to answer anyway :
First dice as 1/6 to give a 4,
Second dice as 2/6 to give either a 4 or a double,
Third as 3/6,
Fourth as 4/6.
Add everything, you get 10/24 to get either a 4 or a double, so nearly 1/2.5

Am I right or should I go back to school to learn more about probabilities ? :)


Kamphre
Not quite right, there's a lot of multiplication you've missed out.

First die is a 4 then 1/6 chance
First die not a 4, second die a 4 or double then 5/6 * 1/3 = 5/18 chance
First die not a 4, second die not a 4 or a double, third die a 4 or double then 5/6 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 5/18 chance
First die not a 4, second die not a 4 or a double, third die not a 4 or double, fourth die is a 4 or double then 5/6 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 2/3 = 5/27 chance

So the probability is 1/6 + 5/18 + 5/18 + 5/27 = (9+15+15+10)/54 = 49/54 = ~91%

Might not be spot on - probability was my weakest area in my degree and my mind's a bit off the ball today.

Dînadan:

Also, isn’t this supposed to be the ‘Geist answers questions’ thread, not the ‘any and all comments answers’ thread? :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Dînadan:

Back to school. In all my games with LoA I've misaed Ashstorm once. So the percentage is way higher than 41.

Bloodbeard
This is a bit of a fallacy - theoretically you could flip a coin 100 times and get heads 99 times, but you be wrong to turn around and say "It can't be a 50:50 chance of getting heads 'cause I got it way more than that whenever I've tossed a coin!" You are right that Kamphre got the percentages wrong, but for the wrong reason ;)

TheHoodedMan:

I think Dinadans relatively close to the right math, at least roughly :-). Thank you!

@Geist: Would you have answered that?

Then you will have my slaves.

Bloodbeard:

I think Dinadans relatively close to the right math, at least roughly :-). Thank you!

@Geist: Would you have answered that?
Then you will have my slaves.

TheHoodedMan
I have a friend (currently taking a PHD in mathmatics a the University of Glasgow) asked him the math. And Dinadan is close, but not correct.

Geist:

Yes I would have answered that, but it’s been answered already. So no point in me answering it now. So let’s try again.

Starting here any rules based questions about 8th Ed for me ask them with your slave award amount posted. All others please refrain from answering questions meant for me.

Ps

I can do math hammer but, I don’t see a point to it when there are many good formulas on line that will give you a very severe curve. Me I will always go on a rough and rarely use a full out formula but that’s me accounting for flux.

Dînadan:

I think Dinadans relatively close to the right math, at least roughly :-). Thank you!

@Geist: Would you have answered that?
Then you will have my slaves.

TheHoodedMan
I have a friend (currently taking a PHD in mathmatics a the University of Glasgow) asked him the math. And Dinadan is close, but not correct.


Bloodbeard
My answer is probably thrown out by the fact that there isn't actually a '1st die', '2nd die', etc which i think might be throwing things off. I originally was going to answer by listing all the possible combinations that you can get Ash Storm on, but gave up as it was taking to long and there would be a lot to write out (even working out the combinations it won't work on and then taking 1-P, where P is the probability you don't get Ash Storm would be time consuming).

So the slaves are still up for grabs Geist ;)

TheHoodedMan:

I had some stochastics myself so i knew it was not so easy;-).

DAGabriel:

Can`t find it now since I am at work:

when did the skin of hobgobs changed from orange to green? 2 slaves

Geist:

Rules questions mate. Your question is better off over on the fluff know is all challenge. I shall pass on your question as its not rules based. But thank you for posting.